Boris Johnson's Fate: Tied to Brexit and Struggles Ahead

The future of Boris Johnson's leadership as Prime Minister is inextricably linked to the outcome of the upcoming election on December 12th. Johnson's ability to successfully deliver on his Brexit promises and navigate the political landscape will largely determine his fate.

The Election and Potential Scenarios

According to recent polling data, the conservative party, along with the Brexit party, is likely to secure a combined vote share of approximately 49%. Meanwhile, pro-remain parties are expected to capture between 51% and 55% of the vote. This raises the question of what will happen if Johnson's Conservatives win a majority in the House of Commons but pro-Brexit parties only secure a minority of the votes cast.

There are two possible outcomes:

Conservative majority with insufficient pro-Brexit support: If Johnson's Conservatives win by a significant margin while pro-Brexit parties struggle to gain support,he faces a complex challenge. Johnson might have enough strength to disregard the more extreme elements within the Conservative party or he might have to threaten them with the potential of a 'no-deal Brexit' to ensure a united stance. A majority of MPs in the House of Commons could act to prevent a no-deal exit if driven by a significant pro-Brexit opposition. Conservative minority with pro-Brexit support: If Johnson's Conservatives win a majority but pro-Brexit parties still don't gain a majority, there is a higher likelihood of a compromise or continued negotiations. This scenario could result in a more watered-down version of the deal, potentially causing further delays and instability.

The Just-Delivered Deal and Its Reception

Johnson's "just-delivered deal" is an interesting case study in political strategy and public perception. The deal, previously proposed by Theresa May and defeated by a record margin, now carries new wording and minor details. However, the core provisions remain largely the same, particularly the differentiation in treatment of Northern Ireland compared to the rest of the UK.

It's worth noting that while the specific terms may have changed, the overall agreement seems to meet the criteria of hardline Brexiteers. Many potential voters who would support such a deal are willing to tolerate significant sacrifices, including substantial personal costs, in pursuit of their Brexit ambitions. In essence, they are prepared to endure considerable hardships and inconveniences if it means achieving Brexit.

Johnson's deal is seen as a pragmatic compromise, but also as a strategy to consolidate his position as a unifying leader. It's remarkable, however, that a deal that has faced wide opposition is now being presented as a personal achievement by Johnson. One can only hope this notion proves temporarily satisfying, given the clear feeling of a lack of originality and the potential for continued opposition.

Conclusion

Boris Johnson's role as Prime Minister is now at a critical juncture. The upcoming election and the subsequent negotiations will determine the extent to which his deal is implemented. Regardless of the outcome, the political landscape is fraught with challenges, and Johnson must navigate the desires of his constituents with a delicate balance of strategies. The next few months will be crucial in shaping the future of Brexit and, by extension, the fate of the country.