Will Brexit Make the UK Rich?

Since the Brexit referendum, the UK's economy has indeed faced challenges, but the narrative that Brexit has made the UK poorer is significantly flawed. While there have been concerns over the immediate impact, a closer examination of the data reveals a more nuanced picture.

Discrediting the Myths

Many critics argue that Brexit has led to economic stagnation, and that the promises of improved conditions were mere propaganda to deceive the public. These claims are often based on selective data and a lack of understanding of the broader economic context.

One insightful answer by Quora poster Alan Smith sheds light on the actual benefits:

“Brexit is a massive success for the UK. It has allowed us to stop the mass migration of unwanted unemployed Eastern Europeans to the UK. On average from 2010 to 2020 there were 350,000 a year, that has been stopped, thereby protecting UK jobs and the UK’s benefit and housing stock. We no longer subsidise the parasitic EU, we were the second largest net contributor. Our balance of trade with the EU improved by ￡38 billion a year when we left the single market. Germany’s worsened by a similar amount. Europe's largest multinationals are moving their global headquarters to the UK because it is more business-friendly than the EU. Shell and Unilever kicked off the trend. We are no longer controlled by Brussels; we control our laws, waters, and fishing rights, who can live and work here, who we can trade with, and on what terms. BNP Paribas, one of the biggest banks in Europe, is encouraging customers to invest in British companies and shun the Eurozone because they expect the British economy to outperform the endangered EU market. According to the United Nations, the UK is now the fourth-largest exporter in the world.””

Exploring the Data

Let's delve deeper into the economic indicators to understand the real impact of Brexit on the UK:

Economic Growth

Data sourced from the IMF reveals that since 2015, the UK's GDP growth, despite Brexit, has consistently placed it in the top tier of G7 countries. The chart shows that while there have been fluctuations, the UK's performance has not been significantly adversely affected.

Inflation and Consumer Prices

Inflation levels in the UK have also shown no alarming trends post-Brexit. The data indicates that inflation rates have followed a similar trajectory to other G7 countries, with no distinct 'Brexit effect' observable until 2023, which could be attributed to other global factors.

Trade and Exports

According to a well-researched report by Barnaby Lamb, Clive Garnham, and Kat Lamb, the UK's export performance has not been notably impacted by Brexit. The chart below compares the UK's export performance with France and Germany:

The report notes that while there were some minor fluctuations around Brexit, the overall export trend has remained stable and comparable to those of France and Germany.

Investment Trends

Investment flatlined following the 2016 referendum as uncertainty prevailed. However, once the Brexit deal was settled, investment began to grow again. This data suggests that the initial dip in investment was not primarily due to Brexit but rather the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the referendum.

Conclusion

The data and research indicate that the warnings about the potential economic impact of Brexit were indeed overblown. The UK's economy has shown resilience and continues to perform well, as evidenced by various economic indicators. While political instability has been a significant issue, the economic impact of Brexit has not been as severe as initially feared.

It is crucial to consider a broader, evidence-based perspective to fully understand the impact of such significant political and economic changes. The narrative that Brexit has made the UK poorer lacks a solid foundation in the available data.