How Profitable is the Brexit for the UK in the Long Run?

The discourse surrounding the profitability of Brexit for the UK often centers on potential economic benefits, but in the long-term, the situation seems to be rooted in more complex and less favorable realities. While the proponents of Brexit argued for an economic gold rush, the post-Brexit reality has been a period of uncertainty and economic strain.

Challenges to Economic Growth and Trade

One of the most pressing concerns regarding Brexit is its impact on the UK's economic growth. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has estimated that Brexit has reduced UK trade intensity by 15%. This significant drop is attributed to the new trade barriers and customs issues resulting from the UK leaving the EU, which have hindered both trade and travel between the UK and the EU. In contrast, other nations are experiencing recovery from the pandemic, while the UK's trade deficit continues to widen.

The economic impact of Brexit is not limited to trade relations but extends to overall economic growth. The OBR has projected that Brexit will hamper UK economic growth by 4% over a certain period. Furthermore, it is estimated that two-fifths of the Brexit-related economic scarring has already occurred, representing a substantial 1.6 percentage points of the UK economy.

Innovation and Cultural Impact

Despite the economic challenges, some might argue that living and working under the shadow of Brexit has spurred innovation and creativity. The sense of innovation and the drive to find new solutions might be a silver lining in the difficult situation. Additionally, there is an argument that music and artistic creativity may flourish as people find novel ways to express themselves in the face of adversity.

The End of the DUP and the Future of Ireland

Another argument posits that Brexit might mark the end of the repressive Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and could lead to a more harmonious and eventually united Ireland. Although these are positive outcomes, they come at the cost of economic stability and immediate benefits to the average citizen.

Political Autonomy and Policy Accountability

Brexit also offers some degree of political autonomy, allowing the UK to navigate its own course. However, the reality seems to be one of limited options and an unwillingness or incapability of the government to clearly articulate the concrete advantages of Brexit. When they mention 'tremendous benefits,' they fail to specify exactly what these are, when they will manifest, or how they will affect everyday life. This lack of transparency leads to speculation about whether the benefits are due to lies, stupidity, or malicious intent.

Brexiteers initially voted to leave the EU to hold their government more accountable. However, the failure to outline clear benefits and the continued reliance on opaque statements suggest a deeper issue with political governance and accountability. The inability to effectively discuss and manage trade-offs has resulted in a juvenile and consequence-free debate, rather than a mature and reflective policy discourse.

Conclusion

While the long-term profitability of Brexit for the UK remains questionable, the situation presents both challenges and potential opportunities. The economic impact is substantial, with predictions of reduced trade intensity and hampered growth. However, the drive for innovation and the possibility of a more united Ireland offer some silver linings. For now, the lack of clarity from the government about the benefits of Brexit leaves many questions unanswered and raises concerns about the intentions and motivations behind the decision to leave the EU.