Can the UK Rejoin the EU After Brexit? A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction

Since its departure from the European Union (EU) on January 31, 2020, the UK has navigated the complexities of a post-Brexit world. While a free-trade agreement was reached, the UK and the EU's future relationship remains uncertain, particularly regarding the trade in services.

Understanding Brexit

Articulating the concept of Brexit is crucial in understanding the context. Brexit, which stands for British exit, refers to the United Kingdom's departure from the EU. This monumental decision, reflecting the country's referendum in June 2016, saw the Leave side winning with 51.9% of the vote. The negotiation process, spanning from 2017 to 2019, led to a divorce deal that included a transition period until December 31, 2020.

Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) Post-Brexit

Since December 24, 2020, the UK and the EU have agreed on a provisional FTA. This agreement, known as the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), ensures tariff- and quota-free trade in goods, though it introduces customs checks for UK-EU trade. Although this arrangement mitigates some of the risks associated with a no-deal scenario, it also means that commerce is not as seamless as it was when the UK was a full member of the EU.

Rationale for UK Reentry

Given the significant challenges and changes brought about by Brexit, the question of whether the UK could rejoin the EU is inevitably raised. However, there is currently no established process for rejoining the EU, primarily because the UK has firmly embraced its newfound sovereignty and economic benefits post-Brexit.

Advantages of Post-Brexit UK

Immigration Containment

The UK has successfully halted the influx of unwanted unemployed Eastern Europeans seeking work, a significant issue during the EEC/EU membership period. From 2010 to 2020, an average of 350,000 such workers arrived annually. This has protected UK jobs, the benefit system, and housing stock.

Economic Independence

No longer a net contributor to the EU, the UK projects fiscal independence. It was previously the second largest net contributor, meaning it now has the financial flexibility to invest in domestic projects and support its economy.

Trade Balance Improvement

The UK's balance of trade improved significantly post-Brexit. The UK gained ￡38 billion annually in its trade with the EU, a substantial boost. Conversely, Germany saw a similar markedly negative impact on its trade balance.

Business-Friendly Environment

Leading multinational corporations, such as Shell and Unilever, have relocated their global headquarters to the UK due to its more business-friendly environment compared to the EU. Banks like BNP Paribas are encouraging customers to invest in British companies and avoid the Eurozone due to a growing confidence in the UK economy.

Global Recognition

The United Nations now ranks the UK as the fourth largest exporter in the world, reflecting its enhanced global trade position.

Conclusion

The prospects of the UK rejoining the EU after Brexit are dim, mainly due to the UK's newfound economic and political independence. With the UK positioned as a leading global exporter and praised for its business-friendly environment, the idea of rejoining the EU, especially on EU terms, seems less attractive to many politicians and citizens.