Is Governor Gavin Newsom's Re-election Likely in the California Recall Election?

It seems quite unlikely that Governor Gavin Newsom could remain in office after the California recall election. This is a situation akin to 'when it snows in hell' – a phrase emphasizing the improbability of such an outcome. Newsom has secured a significant victory, but the margin may not be as substantial as his 2018 victory, which came during a time of high Democratic turnout in California, known for its strong Democratic leanings.

Understanding the Election Context

The recall election did not reflect the usual high turnout associated with Democratic enthusiasm. This low-turnout election highlights that many Democrats did not feel a strong motivation to vote for Newsom, especially when they expected a clear Democratic victory in a traditionally Blue state. The general sentiment among Democrats was that Newsom's recall was highly probable, indicating a more skeptical stance towards his tenure.

Results of the Recall Election

No more than an hour after the polls closed, it became evident that the recall had failed. This was evident even in areas typically leaning Republican, such as San Bernardino and Riverside counties, where strong opposition to the recall was witnessed. The polls, however, were initially more conservative, predicting a 60% 'No' vote, which was likely conservative and possibly due to a delayed surge of motivation driven by frustration over Elder's accusations of voter fraud.

The surge in voting was likely fueled by public anger and outrage over Elder's claims of voter fraud, which were later found to be baseless. The public indignation over these claims intensified the resolve of many to vote 'No' on the recall. This demonstrates how political rhetoric and narrative can significantly impact election outcomes.

Probability and Reinforcement of Democrats' Choice

Did more Democrats vote in the recall election than they did in the 2018 gubernatorial election? Yes, the turnout was increased, but whether this increased turnout signifies support for Newsom is less clear. Democratic voters face a dilemma: to forgive Newsom for his perceived hypocrisy and ideological slip-ups, or to embrace a controversial figure with no relevant gubernatorial experience.

From a Democratic perspective, the cure (supporting Elder) appears much worse than the disease (keeping Newsom). This implies that many Democrats may vote to re-elect Newsom, not out of complete support, but to avoid supporting a candidate with questionable credentials. The strategic decision for Democrats is clear: the lesser of two perceived evils is often the path of least resistance.

Conclusion

The re-election of Governor Gavin Newsom in the California recall election is highly probable. The increased turnout by Democrats, despite the demotivating election context, suggests that they are more willing to re-elect him than to choose a new leader with limited experience and uncertain baggage. While the re-election is not a guaranteed victory, the current evidence and voter preferences indicate a strong likelihood of success for Newsom.