Second Referendum on Brexit: What Would It Look Like?

The idea of holding a second referendum on Brexit has been a subject of much debate. Some proponents argue that a second vote is necessary to reflect the changing views of the public, while others believe that the initial decision is final. This article explores what a second referendum might entail and addresses some common misconceptions.

The Format of a Second Referendum

Exactly the same as the first. People will receive ballot papers where they will mark their preferred option. They will then submit their ballot, and the results will be counted. This process is straightforward and nothing complex. The results won't be known until the following day likely.

Clarifying the Referendum Topic

When discussing a second referendum, it is important to specify which referendum is being referred to. A second referendum on Brexit would essentially be repeating the question: 'Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union?' This would put the same question to the public again, allowing for a re-evaluation of positions and opinions.

Political Realities and Constraints

A second referendum on Brexit is not a straightforward proposition. Here are some key points to consider:

The Legalities: The current stance of the government is that Brexit has already occurred, and the UK has left the EU. Reversing this decision would require significant negotiations with the EU, which is not a simple process. EU Stance: The EU is not likely to entertain the idea of readmitting the UK. This would essentially mean reverting to the status quo ante Brexit, which is not a viable option for the EU amid ongoing negotiations and other member states' interests. Political Will: The decision to hold a second referendum would need to come from the government or a referendum bill being passed by Parliament. However, given the current political climate, such an action is highly unlikely without strong public pressure or a significant shift in political attitudes.

Arguments Against a Second Referendum

Some argue that there is no point in holding a second referendum because Brexit has already taken place, almost three years ago. The sentiment is that the issue is settled and moving forward is more important than reassessing the same question.

Additionally, it is argued that substantial changes have not occurred that would justify a new referendum. Brexit occurred under a specific consensus, and the core beliefs of those who voted to leave have remained mostly unchanged. Therefore, it is believed that the result of a new referendum would be similar to that of the original, leading to the same political and economic consequences.

Consequences and Considerations

The results of a second referendum would not be guaranteed to alter the political landscape significantly. Here are some possible outcomes and considerations:

Same Outcome: Given that the original referendum was held under similar conditions and with significant public support for leaving the EU, a second referendum may well produce the same result. If this were to happen, it would reaffirm the principle that the initial decision was a clear and decisive one. Costs: Should a second referendum be held, the expenses would naturally fall on the political parties and sides that pushed for the rerun, similar to the costs incurred in the first referendum. Realism and Negotiation: Reopening the Brexit debate would require acknowledging the reality of the current situation and engaging in serious negotiations with the EU. This would involve a willingness to re-evaluate the terms of Brexit and potentially reach a new agreement that is more favorable to both parties.

Ultimately, the idea of a second referendum on Brexit is fraught with challenges and uncertainties. It would not be a simple or straightforward process, but rather a complex political gambit that could have significant ramifications.