The Potential Impact of Joe Manchin and Jared Golden on the 2024 Elections

The upcoming 2024 US presidential elections have generated a lot of speculation about the impact of potential third-party candidates, such as Joe Manchin and Jared Golden, running under the No Labels banner. Some believe that their entry could significantly alter the political landscape, while others argue it might have limited effect.

Could a Joe Manchin/Jared Golden No Labels ticket make it more impossible for President Biden and Vice President Harris to get re-elected?

Proponents of a Joe Manchin and Jared Golden ticket argue that it could serve as a crucial barrier to President Biden's re-election. Manchin, a Democratic Senator from West Virginia, has garnered widespread attention, particularly from conservatives and some independent voters, despite being unpopular among many Democrats due to his centrist stance and perceived willingness to negotiate with Republicans. This could potentially draw more conservative and moderate voters who are dissatisfied with the current party dynamics.

Why Some Believe in Its Potential Impact

One key belief is that a Manchin and Golden ticket could attract a significant number of right-leaning independent voters. These individuals are already disillusioned with the current political climate and looking for alternatives. Manchin, known for his moderate leanings and pragmatic approach, could appeal to these voters as a better candidate than a Republican alternative, yet still maintain a level of separation from the Democratic party.

Why Others See Limited Impact

Conversely, the reality is that a third-party push like this may not significantly impact the election outcome. Political analysts often point out that third-party candidates rarely win elections. Data from previous elections, such as the Libertarians in 2020 and 2016, indicate that while they may garner significant attention and votes, they often struggle to convert these votes into electoral success.

No Labels and Past Performance

The No Labels political movement is known for its bipartisan approach but has historically struggled to gain widespread support. In 2020, the Libertarians garnered 1.8 million votes, and in 2016, their tally was even higher, at 4.3 million. However, these votes did not translate into electoral gains, as they failed to win any state races. This trend suggests that No Labels may have a minimal impact on the 2024 election outcomes.

Strategic Considerations and Blackmail Speculation

Recent discussions about a potential Joe Manchin third-party entry have also brought up concerns about strategic motives. Some speculate that Manchin might be using this to gain leverage over the Democratic leadership, perhaps attempting to extract concessions in exchange for his support or deciding to run as an independent if it guarantees a victory for Trump. This strategy has been attributed to his reputation as a self-serving politician, known for his ability to generate headlines and secure deals for himself.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while a Joe Manchin and Jared Golden ticket under the No Labels banner could appeal to a significant number of independent voters, the historical performance of third parties in US elections suggests that it may not significantly alter the electoral landscape in favor of President Biden or Vice President Harris. However, the political maneuvering and potential leverage that Manchin could wield might add an interesting dynamic to the 2024 race.