The Unlikely Path to Brexit: The Remaining Challenges

After three arduous years, the prospect of finally delivering Brexit is clouded with uncertainty. The exit process faces numerous hurdles, with political dynamics creating a deadlock in the House of Commons. As a Leave voter, the lack of consensus among the opposition parties and the potential resistance from the DUP casts doubt on the success of any deal.

Political Uncertainty and the Government's Working Minority

The present government of the UK operates on a 'working minority' in the Commons, making it vulnerable to political upheavals. This instability is particularly concerning as the DUP, an essential ally, is preparing to vote against the deal. Given these circumstances, it would be unwise to bet on the deal's passage through the parliament.

The chances of the deal's success are merely fifty-fifty, and the possibility of a delay is high. This delay could drag on for another three months, further complicating the already precarious situation.

Parliament's Lack of Majority and Democratic Principles

The government does not command a majority in the House of Commons, which makes it highly improbable for the deal to pass unaltered. The initial promise to the electorate was an excellent deal, and now the focus is on ensuring that no deal is any better. The absence of a majority in the Commons places significant constraints on the government's ability to deliver on the Brexit promises.

The electorate never approved a no-deal exit, and as Michael Price noted, the people were misled about the implications of a no-deal scenario. The promises of a food-secure future, unrestricted access to the single market, and protection of the UK's car industry were never fulfilled. The reality now is vastly different from the vision of a better Britain outside the EU.

The Remainers' Opposition and Democratic Integrity

The resistance from Remain MPs is not only undermining the government's efforts but also casting a shadow over the democratic process. These MPs are intent on renege on their promises and disregard democratic and economic principles. The persistence of these challenges poses a significant obstacle to the successful completion of Brexit.

The repercussions of a no-deal exit are far-reaching and potentially disastrous. Food shortages, healthcare disruptions, economic recessions, and a loss of trust in democratic institutions are among the potential outcomes. These are not the conditions that the electorate envisaged when they voted to leave the EU.

Therefore, the current situation demands a reevaluation of the Brexit process. While it may be impossible to deliver the exact Brexit the people voted for, it is essential to find a pathway that addresses the electorate's concerns and upholds democratic principles. The challenge lies in creating a compromise that meets the people's expectations, ensures economic stability, and maintains the integrity of the democratic process.